Brexit's economic impact on Yorkshire and the Humber - how it compares

By Grimsby Telegraph | Posted: 8 Feb 2018

THE forecast hits to economic growth under different Brexit outcomes suggest this region will suffer slightly less than the rest of the UK.

Only London and the South West face a lesser drop in worst case scenario situation of no deal, the list has revealed.

The studies were prepared by the Department for Exiting the European Union and read under controlled conditions by MPs, but leaks have led to the official release.

It shows in Yorkshire and Humber that a Brexit with Single Market membership would prompt a 1.5 per cent hit, with a free trade deal bringing 5 per cent and no deal 7 per cent.

In contrast, the North East could face a 16 per cent hit on the bottom line, with the West Midlands not faring much better.

Sky News has also obtained official estimates of the potential impact of non-tariff barriers - such as extra red tape, customs checks and rules of origin regulations - on various economic sectors.

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The motor industry faces cost increases of between 5% and 13%, while the retail and wholesale industry could see costs rise by between 7% and 20%.

The economically important financial services sector stands to suffer a 5% to 10% cost increase, but construction faces no extra costs.

It came as the Prime Minister has sought to ease tensions over her approach by insisting she had "no doubts" about her plan for a new relationship with Brussels.

At a lavish black-tie event for Conservatives, Mrs May said she had an "ambitious" vision for the UK after Brexit.

Mrs May told the assembled donors, celebrities and politicians at the Black and White Ball: "Ever since the British people delivered their vote in the referendum, I have had no doubts about what our new relationship with the EU must mean for the United Kingdom.

"It will mean taking control of our money - so we are not sending vast annual subscriptions to the EU.

"It also means control of our borders - so we decide on our own immigration policy; one which attracts the brightest and the best to come to these shores, and one which also ensures we are investing in our own talent here at home.

"And it means control of our laws - so British courts are supreme and the European Court of Justice no longer overrules them."

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She stressed her plan would mean leaving the single market and customs union but "constructing a completely new trading partnership with the EU".

The leaked figures have been seized upon by backers of a "soft" Brexit to protect the economy.

But officials said they did not show the impact of the Government's preferred post-Brexit option of an "unprecedented" economic partnership with the EU, or bespoke model as it has been termed.

Mrs May chaired the Brexit sub-committee yesterday and will do so again today to thrash out what kind of trade relationship the UK will seek in negotiations.

Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman Tom Brake said: "The Tories are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the UK."

Labour MP Stephen Doughty, a leading supporter of the pro-EU Open Britain campaign, said: "People in every corner of the United Kingdom will be shocked to see the Government's own assessment of the damage Brexit will do to their communities."

Responding to the leaks, a Government spokesman said: "This document does not represent Government policy and does not consider the outcome we are seeking in the negotiations.

"As ministers clearly set out in the House, this is provisional internal analysis, part of a broad ongoing programme of analysis, and further work is in progress.

"We are seeking an unprecedented, comprehensive and ambitious economic partnership - one that works for all parts of the UK. We are not expecting a no deal scenario."

The list:

London

Single Market - 1%

Free Trade - 2%

No Deal - 3.5%

South West

Single Market - 1%

Free Trade - 2%

No Deal - 5%

South East

Single Market - 1.5%

Free Trade - 4.5%

No Deal - 7.5%

Eastern

Single Market - 1.8%

Free Trade - 5%

No Deal - 8%

East Midlands

Single Market - 1.8%

Free Trade Deal - 5%

No Deal - 8.5%

Scotland

Single Market - 2.5%

Free Trade - 6%

No Deal - 9%

Wales

Single Market - 1.5%

Free Trade - 5.5%

No Deal - 9.5%

North West

Single Market - 2.5%

Free Trade - 8%

No Deal - 12%

Northern Ireland

Single Market - 2.5%

Free Trade - 8%

No Deal - 12%

West Midlands

Single Market - 2.5%

Free Trade - 8%

No Deal - 13%

North East

Single Market - 3%

Free Trade - 11%

No Deal - 16%

Read more: Today's main headlines from Humberbusiness.com 

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